Is there a chance to end the war between Russia and Ukraine?

Yes, of course there is. The war will end; the real question being when, and how.

There are 3 broad factors that will determine the when and how. Any one factor is influenced by the other two, and that’s why it is so difficult to predict the outcome.

• Political Will. Both Russia and Ukraine have LOTS of political willpower, even 11 months into the war. Russia is led by Vladimir Putin who needs to win at all costs. Fail, and he will lose his position, if not his life. He must win, or die, and that is quite a literal possibility. Everything is up to who blinks first in this martial staring contest.

Ukraine will…not…ever…blink. They still remember the Holodomor. They will not face another, before death. They would rather die on their feet, than face another Holodomor on their knees. This is something Russia does not perceive. Still, Ukraine is highly dependent on largesse from the West. The West may definitely blink first, believing that supporting Ukraine is pouring money into a “money pit.” At least, this is what Mr. Putin is counting on. He’ll send tens of thousands of Russians to their death, expecting the West to give up before he runs out of Russians. Yet, at the same time, the West sees this as a broader ideological conflict, one not just between Russia and Ukraine, but one between liberal democracy and autocracy. Lose this, and the West is doomed to battle autocrats across the world and even within their own midst (e.g., “Hungary”). What Putin does not seem to realize, is that for the West, this war is also seen as a, must win or die proposition.

• Economics. Russia has an economy roughly the size of Italy. Italy is just one member in the world’s most powerful of all economies, the EU (European Union). Also on the same side, is the USA, the most powerful single-country economy in the world. Six of the world’s largest economies have sided with Ukraine.

Wars are often decided by economies. When a country’s economy fails, the military of that country is not far behind in capitulating.

In this respect, Russia is at major disadvantage. Any national economy is dependent on a list of other nations, whether it be as buyer or seller. A country must be able to do either, and in large volumes, to continue. Russia tried to use its energy exports as a weapon, and quickly discovered, to their chagrin, that Russia, is not in fact the center of the universe. There are other energy sellers out there, and now Russia’s economy suffers. Indeed, the West does suffer…a tad…without cheap Russia energy, but the West is more flexible than Russia ever imagined, having the capacity to diversify on the fly. Without the prospect of supporting the war with energy exports, Russia may in fact, blink first.

Another empty, failed, Russian factory.

• Military. The actions on the battlefield, I believe, will not be the final arbiterof this war, yet, it may prove the keystone to any decision made by economics or political will. This war will end before either side runs out tanks, airplanes, artillery rounds, or troops. Theorizing about this is common on Quora, but wars usually end before any of that ever occurs. Approaching the limit of any of these martial parameters may possibly break the political or the economic will of either side.

Can Russia hold the Lugansk region when a Ukrainian Thunder Run smashes into it? Can Russia’s hastily assembled fortifications in Zaporizhzhia withstand an assault by Ukraine with new, Western tanks and aircraft? Even if Russia manages to take Bakhmut, how long can it hold it when it loses air superiority to Ukraine’s newly acquired 4th gen fighters?

F-16s. Even now, Ukrainian pilots are training to fly them.

I’m betting on Ukraine for the win, and pushing the Russian invaders out of all Ukrainian territory. “When,” I don’t know, but that storm is coming.